Strait of Hormuz tensions raise fears of rising fertilizer prices and a possible global food crisis

The ongoing conflict involving Iran is raising fresh concerns about global food security, as disruptions in trade routes threaten the supply of key fertilizers used in agriculture worldwide.
Much of the attention has been on oil and liquefied natural gas shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that carries around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG exports from the Gulf region. However, experts warn that fertilizer shipments passing through the same route may pose an even greater risk to global food supplies.
Countries in the Gulf region, including United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, play a crucial role in global fertilizer production. According to industry data, the region accounts for about 20 percent of global traded volumes of key fertilizers, including ammonia, phosphates and sulfur.
Nearly half of the world’s traded urea — the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer — also comes from the Gulf. QatarEnergy, one of the largest producers in the region, recently halted production at the Ras Laffan industrial complex following Iranian strikes. The facility is considered one of the world’s largest hubs for LNG and fertilizer production.
As a result, hundreds of thousands of tons of fertilizer nutrients and raw materials have been temporarily taken out of the global supply chain. Since the conflict escalated, fertilizer prices have reportedly risen between 10 and 30 percent, raising concerns for farmers and food producers worldwide.
According to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), around 1.33 million tonnes of fertilizer pass through the Strait of Hormuz every month. Experts warn that if the waterway were closed for even 30 days, it could trigger global shortages and threaten the production of key crops such as corn, wheat and rice.
Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute said higher fertilizer prices could influence farmers’ crop choices. Some farmers may switch to crops requiring less fertilizer, while others — particularly in developing countries — may reduce fertilizer use altogether, which could lower crop yields.
The situation raises fears of another global food crisis, following earlier disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on grain exports in 2022.
Meanwhile, despite remarks from Donald Trump suggesting the conflict may soon ease, tensions remain high. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, Iran recently fired at several vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, signalling that shipping in the region remains under threat.
Experts warn that prolonged disruption in the area could have serious consequences not only for energy markets but also for global food production and prices in the months ahead.